Depending on your type of promotion, I would say at least one year.
My first forum I promoted through the usual ways, such as directory submission, link building, posting articles - and that site nevre did take off.
So I changed direction and started video blogging on youtube. A couple of months later, traffic really took off.
I have seen forums that are 2, 3, 4 and even 5 years old that never took off. But then again, it looks like the owner did not do any serious promotion either.
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